Apple ups its odds of gaining on Samsung in China

Apple has bigger designs on the biggest
smartphone market in the world.
New iPhones could help Apple catch up with
Samsung in China -- Samsung is now the single
largest smartphone player in that market -- if
two likely scenarios happen.
First, Apple announces a lower-cost iPhone,
rumored to be the 5C. That would provide a
better match for China's price-sensitive
consumers.
Second, Apple cuts a deal with China Mobile,
the biggest carrier in the largest smartphone
market in the world.
Apple's growth in China has been stunted, in
part, because it hasn't been able to strike a
deal with China Mobile and its 740 million
subscribers. (Apple lost market share in China
last quarter.) Talks continue -- Apple CEO Tim
Cook met with China Mobile Chairman Xi
Guohua in July -- but nothing definitive has
been announced.
Apple, however, could be in a better position
this time to move forward with China Mobile.
Reports out of Asia speculate that Apple's new
phones will better support China Mobile's
3G/4G network standards .
UBS forecasts that Apple could sell 17 million
iPhones through China Mobile next year, with
the bulk of those expected to be the 5C. That's
about 10 percent of UBS' projected total
iPhone sales, according to the Financial Times.
And things may be looking up with Apple's
current partners in China, China Telecom and
China Unicom. A recent report from Ifanr --
citing an unnamed source -- claimed that the
iPhone 5S and 5C have been certified by
China's Ministry of Industry and Information
Technology and that China Telecom and China
Unicom will release the two models in
September, earlier than a previously reported
November release date.
That's all just rumor, of course, but it may
indicate that Apple will be faster at releasing
new iPhones in China this time around.
While all of the above is potentially good news
for Apple, Samsung shipped 72.4 million
smartphones worldwide in the second quarter
compared with Apple's 31.2 million global
shipments, according to IDC.
A nontrivial chunk of those Samsung
shipments happened in China, where the
company is estimated to hold 19 percent of the
market, about 10 percentage points more than
Apple.
Apple's revenue in the most recent reported
quarter fell 14 percent year over year in Greater
China, which includes Taiwan and Hong Kong.